ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brian Duff is an assistant professor of political science at the University of New England in Biddeford.
BIDDEFORD — On Nov. 3, Maine voters will decide whether to overturn a law that extends marriage rights to gay couples.
Gay marriage may seem like an issue about which people have firm ideas. It isn't.
Many Mainers are in the position that Gov. John Baldacci was in this spring: they have conflicting feelings regarding gay marriage, which they have yet to resolve one way or the other.
Last May, Baldacci, after a period of reflection, decided to sign the bill that allows gay couples to marry.
As Maine voters make up their minds this month, their decision will be deeply influenced by the messages about gay marriage they encounter in the media.
In assessing the different ideas they hear, there will be one thing that voters will give the most weight: the words of leaders they know and trust.
Political scientists have found that it is the ideas of trusted leaders that people attend to most in forming an opinion on a difficult issue. The words of trusted leaders cut through the noise.
Take the example of stem-cell research. Ten years ago few of us had heard of a stem cell. Now many of us have a strong opinion about whether stem-cell research is deserving of federal support.
If you trust George Bush, and read in the media about his opposition to this research, you'd likely oppose it as well. If you trust Barack Obama, and you heard about his support for stem-cell research, you'd likely agree.
Gay marriage, an issue relatively new to political discussion, follows a similar logic.
The difference is that few political leaders have publicly supported equal marriage. This makes things more difficult for supporters of marriage equality here in Maine.
Both sides debating the ballot question on gay marriage understand the importance of messages in the media.
That is why they are spending so much money on television ads.
What is missing in the debate are the voices of political leaders.
In making up their mind Mainers must decide whether to trust an ominous teacher who warns us that gay marriage will be forced into the grade-school curriculum (featured in the "Yes on 1" ads), or the upbeat teacher who says no such thing will happen (featured in the "No on 1" ads). How do voters know which teacher to trust?
Things would be quite different if Gov. Baldacci decided to play a more prominent role in the debate over equal marriage.
Baldacci is someone whose own path from opposing gay marriage to supporting it will resonate with many undecided voters.
While many supporters of equality can't relate to Baldacci's initial anxiety about gay marriage, they welcomed his final decision to sign the bill. They would also welcome his support.
Baldacci himself has nothing to lose by taking a more prominent role in the debate over gay marriage. His time as governor is ending with a whimper.
His strengths as a competent manager were overwhelmed by the difficulties of the recession.
If Baldacci took the lead on an issue that he has come to see as a fundamental question of civil rights, he could transform his legacy.
No governor in America stepped out front on this issue when it mattered.
In California, Arnold Schwarzenegger blocked gay marriage several times before changing his mind and offering his lukewarm support.
Only after California voters banned gay marriage did Schwarzenegger find his voice. It was too little, too late.
Baldacci should not make the same mistake. The "No on 1" campaign may wonder if they really want a governor of middling popularity speaking up on their issue.
It's worth the risk. Careful political calculation won't help Maine become the first state in American history to vote to affirm gay marriage.
Transformative politics require leadership in the form of the right words at the right time.
The very qualities that have made Baldacci less than inspiring – his careful, centrist approach – make him uniquely suited to articulate the reasons to support gay marriage that will most resonate with Maine voters.
If Baldacci believes he did the right thing in signing the bill he should say so to every voter and every reporter who will listen.
Some people may wonder if Baldacci is trusted enough to make a difference on this issue.
Taking a stand on difficult issues, and clearly explaining your reasons, is exactly how trust is created.
In speaking up on Question 1, Baldacci can transform both the debate and his own legacy.
— Special to the Press Herald
Copyright © 2009 MaineToday Media, Inc.