WASHINGTON — Just when it was beginning to look a little better, the economy suffered a return to double-digit unemployment last month for only the second time since World War II, producing warnings that next year will be even worse than previously thought.
The jobless rate rocketed to 10.2 percent in October, the highest since early 1983, dealing a psychological blow to Americans as they prepare holiday shopping lists. It was another worse-than-expected report casting a shadow over the struggling recovery.
President Obama called it "a sobering number that underscores the economic challenges that lie ahead." He signed a measure to extend unemployment benefits and to expand a tax credit for home buyers.
Economists had not expected the 10 percent mark to come so quickly, and immediately darkened their forecasts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, and Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., predicted the rate will peak at 11 percent by mid-2010. They earlier had projected a peak of 10.5 percent.
Unemployment at 11 percent would be a post-World War II record. Only once since then has joblessness hit double digits in the United States – from September 1982 to July 1983, topping out at 10.8 percent.
The Labor Department, using a survey of company payrolls, said the economy shed 190,000 jobs in October. A separate survey of households found 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September. Some 15.7 million Americans are out of work.
The survey of companies doesn't count the self-employed, and undercounts employees of small businesses. So the economic picture could be even more dire.
One struggling small business, home builder Miller and Smith Inc. of McLean, Va., has trimmed its work force to about 100 from 350 at the height of the housing market in 2005. The company has been hurt by a slowdown in building and surging health care costs.
Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy because they account for about 60 percent of the nation's jobs. They tend to rely on credit cards and home equity lines – both of which banks have tightened – for cash flow.
And the unemployment rate doesn't include people without jobs who have stopped looking, or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest since at least 1994.
Economists had expected unemployment to rise to no more than 9.9 percent, up just a tick from September's 9.8 percent, and the surprising jump added to fears that the recovery could fizzle if Americans don't spend.
Already, consumer confidence for October came in well below what analysts were expecting. Shoppers' sentiments about the state of the economy are the gloomiest in nearly three decades.
Stores, always with an eye on holiday sales, are especially worried this year.
"This is a situation where the recovery balloon is getting off the ground but might not have enough power to keep rising," said Brian Bethune, economist at IHS Global Insight.
Sitting at a St. Louis unemployment center, Paul Branyon, who was laid off in July from a Williams-Sonoma factory in Tennessee and now lives with relatives, shook his head and laughed at the notion that the worst recession since the 1930s is over.
"It's getting actually harder right now," the 26-year-old said. "It seems like everywhere you go, people are losing jobs. People are cutting back. So it's going to get harder before it gets easier."
The economy actually grew from July to September for the first time in a year, but that's no consolation for people like Jose Betancourt, 57, who goes to a Miami-area career center twice a week to take computer education classes.
Betancourt has been out of work since July, when he was laid off from his supermarket maintenance job. He lives on about $600...
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