Voter turnout on Tuesday may have hit the highest level in nearly four decades for an off-year referendum election in Maine.
Official figures aren't yet available, but Maine's top election official estimated Wednesday that turnout may have been as high as 55 percent to 60 percent.
Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap had been predicting as late as Tuesday that turnout would be about 35 percent, based on requests for absentee ballots.
"It really depends on what kind of punch-in-the-gut issue is on the ballot," Dunlap said.
This year, Question 1, a proposal to repeal Maine's new same-sex marriage law, and Question 5, a proposal to expand the state's medical marijuana law, had that kind of effect, he said.
While the more technical tax proposals have their audience, he said, they don't tap into the broader electorate in the same way.
From 1971 to 2007, turnout for off-year referendum elections ranged from about 20.2 percent to 50.9 percent, according to Dunlap's office. The high came in 2003, when a casino proposal was the most voted-on question.
By comparison, turnout for last year's presidential election was just over 71.2 percent.
Tuesday's heavy turnout caught some other election officials by surprise as well.
South Portland had to photocopy city ballots in the evening because polling places started running low.
City Clerk Susan Mooney looked at the past three off-year elections – when 32, 43 and 55 percent of the registered voters turned out – and figured that 60 percent would be safe.
But 63.2 percent turned out, possibly because of keen interest in a proposed ban on dogs at Willard Beach.
"I figured, 'I'm going to go to the highest turnout and bump that up a little bit, and I should be fine,'" Mooney said Wednesday. "It's been really stressful."
Kennebunkport, which had 72 percent turnout, had enough town ballots prepared but wasn't sent enough state ballots. The town had to get permission to borrow a pack from Biddeford.
Town Clerk April Dufoe didn't know Wednesday how many from the pack were needed.
"It was very, very nerve-wracking, having that sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach, that you have to do something really fast," she said.
Dufoe believes that interest in the statewide ballot questions – the local ones weren't controversial – and high levels of voter participation were behind the turnout.
She said Kennebunkport often has turnout figures 20 percentage points higher than the state average.
Portland City Clerk Linda Cohen said Question 1 helped bring the city's voter turnout to 60 percent. Her office got many requests for absentee ballots that came from a No on 1 campaign mailing.
The state and at least some communities calculate turnout in different ways. The state looks at the number of ballots cast compared with the voting-eligible population. Some municipalities compare the number of voters casting ballots with the number who are registered.
Much remains unknown about the factors affecting voter turnout, said Brian Duff, a political scientist at the University of New England. Factors including generational differences, voting laws and ballot questions affect turnout, he said.
Tuesday's election came at a time of strong interest in politics, Duff said. The federal government's activity – from economic stimulus to corporate bailouts to health care reform – is creating greater interest, he said.
Additionally, the heavy advertising on Question 1 got people thinking about the issues, he said. "It felt like a presidential election year."
Mark Brewer, a political scientist at the University of Maine, said that while Question 1 spurred voter turnout, this year's state ballot had a number of "impressive" questions.
Question 4 – the so-called Taxpayer Bill of Rights – and Question 3 – the repeal...
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