As Election Day nears, the group that is campaigning for government spending caps has much less cash than its opponent but is well ahead in the polls.

TABOR NOW, the political action committee advocating for Question 4, had raised $75,400 as of Sept. 30 and spent most of it, according to campaign finance reports released Wednesday.

Citizens United for Maine's Future, which is fighting the so-called TABOR II, reported $659,000 in cash donations plus $153,000 in-kind contributions. Heading into the campaign's final weeks, the group had more than $270,000 in cash on hand.

It appears that it will need that money.

In a poll released Wednesday by the Pan Atlantic SMS Group of Portland, 52.8 percent of likely Maine voters who were surveyed said they would either vote "yes" on Question 4 or were leaning that way.

It showed that 38.7 percent said they would vote "no" or were leaning toward voting "no."

Supporters of the spending caps are now in the "catbird seat," said the pollster, Patrick Murphy.

Murphy noted that the poll of 401 likely Mane voters was conducted Sept. 30 through Oct. 7, and that support for the measure today may be less than it was last week because its opponents have been the only ones running television ads.

At this time in the campaign two years ago, when a similar measure was on the state ballot, support for it began to drop sharply, Murphy said. In the end, the cap was defeated by 8 percentage points.

"I think this one is probably somewhat volatile," he said. "I think the anti-TABOR folks are going to pour a lot of money at this for the next couple of weeks. That could change things."

Question 4 would limit state spending and require voters' approval for exceeding state and local spending limits.

David Crocker, chairman of TABOR NOW, said he is gratified to see the poll results. Because his group has had difficulty raising money, it won't run television ads until the last week of the campaign, if at all, he said.

"This is David and Goliath," he said. "We don't have the union dues and the big bucks of the other side."

TABOR NOW's donations have come mostly from Maine residents who donated from $100 to $1,000. The largest donation, as of Sept. 30, was $15,000 from the Freeport-based Elm Venture Fund LLC.

However, Maine Leads, the political action committee that paid volunteers to gather signatures and got the question on the ballot, received several large donations from out-of-state anti-tax groups in 2007 and 2008.

In a financial report it submitted Thursday, Maine Leads said it received $150,000 two years ago from the Virginia-based National Taxpayers Association and $20,300 from the group in January 2008.

In August, 2008, it received $27,400 from the Chicago-based Sam Adams Alliance.

Maine Leads spent all of the money on the petition drive to get the question on the ballot.

"This is not a popular uprising from Maine voters," said Toby McGrath, campaign manager for Citizens United. "This is coming from Chicago and Virginia."

Citizens United recently received several large donations. The Service Employees International Union gave $100,000, the National Education Association gave $25,000 and the Maine State Employees Association gave $10,000, according to its report. In addition, the Maine Municipal Association, which represents Maine's cities and towns, gave $80,000 in cash and more than $16,000 in in-kind donations.

Crystal Canney, spokeswoman for Citizens United for Maine's Future, said the 25,000 Maine teachers who are members of the National Education Association are worried about preserving the quality of Maine's schools if TABOR is passed.

"When something this destructive is put on the ballot, we are the ones who are forced into the position to have to fight it and spend the money to do that," she said.

Although opponents defeated tax and spending caps in...