AUGUSTA — A new poll shows an edge for supporters of same-sex marriage in Maine's Nov. 3 referendum, with 51.8 percent of those surveyed saying they plan to vote to uphold the law legalizing it and 42.9 percent planning to vote for repeal.
The poll released Wednesday by the Pan Atlantic SMS Group of Portland shows that 5.2 percent of the people surveyed were undecided.
The survey results followed campaign finance reports on Tuesday that showed No on 1, the group supporting same-sex marriage, had raised $2.7 million as of Sept. 30. The group supporting a people's veto of the law, Stand for Marriage Maine, had raised $1.1 million.
The poll covered questions on the Nov. 3 ballot, as well as next year's gubernatorial election and several national policy issues. The complete poll is online at pressherald.com.
The pollster, Patrick Murphy, was a bit surprised by the results on Question 1, the same-sex marriage question, which he said showed a "bit of a shift to the 'no' vote."
He said he thinks the No on 1 group has more funding, and has done more advertising -- both possible factors in the survey results.
Despite the numbers, both campaigns said they consider the race close.
"It's certainly encouraging, but we have no reason to believe this will be anything but a razor-thin election," said Jesse Connolly, campaign manager for No on 1. "That's why we're working every day to secure every vote we can."
Marc Mutty, chairman of Stand for Marriage Maine, said, "We're not terribly worried about what we're seeing here.
"Our polling doesn't indicate any numbers near that skewed," he said. "It indicates it's neck-and-neck."
In a survey of 401 likely Maine voters, conducted Sept. 30 through Oct. 7, Pan Atlantic asked: "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages? If today was Election Day, how would you vote on this issue?"
Pan Atlantic was not paid to do the survey, and is not working for campaigns on any of the questions addressed in the poll, Murphy said.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. That means that if the survey were to be repeated, the results would reflect those from this survey 95 times out of 100, within the 4.9 percent margin of error.
Murphy said he sees two dominant themes in the same-sex marriage campaign. Those who want to keep the law that was passed in May are pushing the idea that Mainers are fair-minded and should support equality. Those seeking a repeal are running a campaign that warns voters about what could happen if the law stands, which Murphy called a "scare campaign."
"Probably the positive message has been resonating more," he said.
He pointed to a question asking whether respondents believed that same-sex marriage would be taught in schools, an issue that has emerged in the campaign and in advertising.
Only 30.7 percent believed it would be taught in schools, while 61.6 percent didn't think so and 7.7 percent didn't know.
"They weren't buying that," Murphy said.
Murphy noted that on similar issues in other states, "you've seen margins erode on Election Day."
There is a theory in polling that respondents may not tell the truth if they think they may be perceived as bigoted in any way, said Murphy. The common thought is that may erase at least 5 percentage points of support for No on 1.
No matter what, the winner will be the side that's most successful in getting its supporters to vote, including early absentee voters, Murphy said.
Mutty agreed.
"We're convinced this is a get-out-the-vote campaign," he said. "If it snows, it's going to have a huge impact. If it's real cold and rainy, or sunny -- all those things are going to have an impact."
Murphy noted some correlation between...
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