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An unusually large percentage of Mainers appear to have a position on the issue, which is the subject of a hearing today.

By MATT WICKENHEISER Staff Writer April 22, 2009

Public opinion is almost evenly split on a bill before Maine lawmakers to allow same-sex marriage, according to a new poll released on the eve of a public hearing expected to draw thousands to Augusta today.

Pan Atlantic SMS Group of Portland asked 400 Maine residents two questions related to gay marriage between April 6 and 14. The first was: "The Maine Legislature is considering a bill that would seek to change the Maine statutes that govern civil marriage rights to allow marriage licenses to be issued to any two persons regardless of the sex of such persons. Do you support or oppose this proposed bill?"

According to Pan Atlantic, 49.5 percent said they oppose the bill, 47.3 percent said they support it and 3.3 percent said they don't know.

"If they're faced with a choice straight-up, people are split pretty much down the middle," said Patrick Murphy, president of Pan Atlantic.

Murphy said that on questions about public-policy issues, there is normally a higher percentage in the "don't know" category -- usually 8 percent to 10 percent. That was obviously not the case on this question.

"Most people had a position," he said. "Maybe it's because there's been a lot of media coverage on the issue."

Proponents of the legislation say they are seeking to end discrimination against gays, while opponents say the bill is an assault on traditional marriage.

The Pan Atlantic poll found some geographic disparities on the issue, with 55.9 percent of northern Maine and Down East respondents saying they oppose the bill. Only 41.5 percent of southern Maine residents said they are opposed.

Republicans were more likely to be opposed, at 71.6 percent, than those who identified themselves as Democrats (38.8 percent opposed) or independents (44.2 percent opposed.)

Also, men were more likely to say they oppose the bill, with 55.1 percent answering that way compared with 44.1 percent of women.

Pan Atlantic conducted the poll independently, without support from groups on either side of the issue, Murphy said. The poll had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. That means that if the poll were to be repeated, the results would be within 4.9 points of the present findings in 95 of 100 cases.

The gay-marriage questions were part of Pan Atlantic's Omnibus poll, which contained questions on many topics and will be released next week.

A second question asked: "Which of the following comes closest to your position on the issue of marriage for gay and lesbian couples and civil unions?" The results: 39.3 percent of respondents support "full marriage rights"; 34.5 percent support civil unions or partnerships, but not marriage; and 23 percent oppose "any legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples." More than 3 percent said they don't know.

Pan Atlantic also provided historical data on that question. In March 2004, respondents came in at 30.3 percent for full rights; 35.5 percent for civil unions; and 31.8 percent opposed to "any legal recognition."

Shenna Bellows, executive director of the Maine Civil Liberties Union, a proponent of the gay-marriage bill, said the trend over time is encouraging.

"I think it is wonderful to see that across all age groups, all demographics, there is support for changing the status quo," Bellows said.

"I think the even split is good news for supporters of marriage equality; Mainers' attitudes are moving in the right direction," she said. "I think most people would have predicted just five years ago or even a year ago that opposition to this bill would be statistically greater than support for this bill."

Marc Mutty, public affairs director for the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland, which opposes the bill, said much of his data is fairly anecdotal, and based on national-level polls. Mutty said the Pan Atlantic data "doesn't surprise me very much."

"Where you see...