enlarge John Patriquin/Staff Photographer

Alan MacDonald works on pipes this week as he prepares another floor for apartments at North Dam Mill in Biddeford. Maine has seen a new trend of increased development in metropolitan areas.

POPULATION CHANGES

SERVICE CENTERS, 1990-2000; 2000-2007

AUGUSTA: -12 percent;

-1 percent

BANGOR: -5 percent;

+1 percent

BELFAST: no change;

+6 percent

CARIBOU: -12 percent;

+2 percent

LEWISTON: -10 percent;

-1 percent

PORTLAND: no change;

-2 percent

SACO: +11 percent;

+8 percent

WATERVILLE: -9 percent;

+2 percent

SMALL TOWNS IN CUMBERLAND AND YORK COUNTIES

CASCO: -15 percent;

-7 percent

FALMOUTH: +35 percent;

+3 percent

HARRISON: +19 percent;

+3 percent

NORTH YARMOUTH: +32 percent;

+10 percent

RAYMOND: +24 percent;

+5 percent

ACTON: +24 percent;

+5 percent

ARUNDEL: + 34 percent;

+ 14 percent

DAYTON: +51 percent;

+12 percent

WATERBORO: +38 percent;

+17 percent

YORK: +31 percent;

+7 percent

Source: U.S. Census/Maine State Planning Office

An aging population, volatile energy prices and the ongoing economic meltdown might do what 20 years of land-use planning has largely failed to accomplish in Maine – slow suburban sprawl and coax development closer to cities.

Census data studied by the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram reveal shifts that may signal a gradual reversal of long-standing development patterns that have contributed to sprawl.

Most significant: Population changes for 22 of the state's service-center communities show that the steady flow of people away from the cities during the 1990s has ebbed dramatically since 2000. A few communities, such as Bangor, Waterville and Belfast, have begun gaining population.

A similar analysis of every community in fast-growing York and Cumberland counties shows that the rapid pace of development in suburbs and outlying towns has cooled in recent years. The York County town of Dayton, for example, grew by more than 50 percent from 1990 to 2000. So far this decade, the growth rate there is less than 12 percent.

These comparisons were compiled by the Maine State Planning Office. Taken together, they hint at changes in development patterns that have endured in Maine for half a century.

Unplanned, sprawling development is frowned upon because it eats up farm and forest land, and increases the need for schools, public safety and other services. Planners encourage towns to enact zoning that directs growth to concentrated areas within communities and preserves open space. But these ideals often butt up against individual property rights, and the choices of a car-oriented society in which large homes on oversized lots are considered desirable.

MANY FORCES AT WORK

Now those desires may be changing a bit.

No one factor seems to be responsible for the shift – rising land prices, the slowing economy in New England and growth caps that many towns enacted to limit housing starts may all be contributing.

"I would guess it's a combination of different factors," said Amanda Rector, an economist at the planning office who tracks census figures.

Also unclear, Rector said, is where the population shift is coming from.

"Has the slower population decline, and in some places, population increase, come from people moving to cities from suburban towns, from rural areas, or from out-of-state, out-of-country?" she wondered.

Some answers might emerge when the U.S. Census Bureau takes a comprehensive look at population figures in 2010, Rector said.

The preliminary census figures complement information collected earlier this month by the Press Herald showing that fewer new homes will be built in southern Maine this year than at any time since at least 1991. Some of the more striking declines in building permits are in suburbs away from cities.

It is common for permit requests to slide in a recession. When the economy recovers, however, construction tends to pick up again in the countryside, along with the familiar debate over how to balance growth while preserving Maine's natural resources and rural character.

Alan Caron, president and founder of the anti-sprawl advocacy group, GrowSmart Maine, said he believes this economic cycle will turn out different.

'THERE'S NO GOING BACK'

Changing demographics, he said, already are reducing the number of young families moving to remote suburbs in search of open space, cheaper land and lower taxes. Last summer, $4 a gallon gasoline heightened awareness of the cost of commuting to far-away job centers.

Add to that an expected long-term hangover from the current fiscal crisis that's likely to reduce school aid, road construction and other government spending, Caron said, and incentives that helped draw people to rural Maine are drying up.

"You take those three things in combination, and there's no going back," he said.

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