enlarge Gordon Chibroski/Staff Photographer

Waiter Cory Beckwith serves lunch to Deb Bopsie of Kennebunkport and Christine Curci of Cumberland on the patio at Mims Brasserie on Commercial Street in Portland on Monday. Employment in the food service sector is expected to grow.

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PROJECTED JOB GAINS AND LOSSES

Top 10 industries expected to gain or lose the largest number of jobs in Maine between 2006 and 2016.

WINNERS

• Ambulatory health care services, 5,603

• Hospitals, 5,308

• Social assistance, 4,002

• Food services and drinking places, 3,914

• Administrative and support services, 2,752

• Professional, scientific, tech services, 2,637

• Nursing and residential care facilities, 2,267

• Educational services, 1,808

• Electronic markets and agents and brokers, 1,607

• Specialty trade contractors, 1,425

LOSERS

• Paper manufacturing, -2,690

• Computer and electronic product manufacturing, -1,536

• Wood product manufacturing, -1,314

• Food manufacturing, -1,067

• Federal government, -889

• Machinery manufacturing, -730

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores, -665

• Furniture and related product manufacturing, -591

• Leather and allied product manufacturing, -578

• Printing and related support activities, -426

Source: Maine Employment Outlook to 2016, Maine Department of Labor

An aging population and the growth of Internet commerce will change the mix of jobs in Maine during the next several years, according to a new state report.

There will be overall job growth through 2016, according to new projections by the Maine Department of Labor, but some observers worry that the kind of jobs created won't be as good as the ones being lost, particularly for people without specialized training.

The report, "Maine Employment Outlook to 2016," comes at a time when the public and candidates for public office are focused on jobs and the economy.

The national unemployment rate hit 6.1 percent for August, a five-year high. Maine's rate, which has been tracking closely with the national number, has not been released for August. It stood at 5.4 percent in July.

The state study showed there will be opportunities in the years ahead: Employment in food service, social assistance and health care will continue to grow. In eight years, the state is projected to have a total of 710,509 jobs, an increase of 5 percent over 2006, according to the report.

Two out of three new jobs will be in service industries, such as health care and tourism. The report anticipates 37,368 new jobs in that sector, a 7.5 percent increase.

At the same time, manufacturing is expected to lose 7,671 jobs, a 12.8 percent decline.

Michael Hillard, a University of Southern Maine economics professor, warns that the employment trends do not bode well for workers.

"We have this loss of jobs that paid $30,000 to $50,000 a year to people with no college degrees, and in its place, you have this service sector that pays $7 to $11 an hour with no benefits and no upward mobility," he said. "People who don't have a specialized skill or higher education can be employed, but not really at a livable wage."

The rapid growth of the older population, the impact of the Internet and big box stores, and a shift to a service economy are major factors shaping employment trends, according to Glenn Mills, director of economic research for the state Department of Labor.

The 10-year snapshot, a 53-page report, uses detailed 2006 employment data from the state and federal labor departments to anticipate future employment trends. The report is published every two years.

Various manufacturing sectors will post double-digit declines – as high as 48.1 percent for electrical equipment and appliance manufacturing – according to the report. The lone bright spot is an increase of 930 jobs, 18.9 percent, in the fabricated metal product sector, the result of a devalued dollar that has made Maine companies more competitive overseas, Mills said.

Employment numbers reflect the significant influence of mechanization in certain sectors, Hillard said.

"We produce as much paper as we did 20 years ago. We cut much more wood than we cut back then. We produce as much as we did. But we do it with 40 percent of the work force," Hillard said. "We have been through this sharp decline, but there's a remaining niche production that I think will continue."

There is a significant difference in employment trends in northern and southern Maine, with far fewer opportunities to the north, he noted.

"The southern part of the state is really dynamic, while the rest of the state is in sharp decline," Hillard said.

Demographics play a key role in some results, particularly with aging baby boomers retiring and needing more medical care, Mills said. Maine will add 17,180 jobs in health care and social assistance by 2016, a jump of 18 percent, according to the report. At the same time, boomers are downsizing their housing as their children move out, and construction demand is on the wane.

Employment in the construction of buildings will be down 2.7 percent from a decade earlier, the only construction sector to lose jobs, according to the report. Jobs for specialty trade contractors, such...