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Voters show a preference for the Republican over her Democratic rival, U.S. Rep. Tom Allen.

By DIETER BRADBURY, Staff Writer July 9, 2008

Maine voters prefer Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins over her Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, by a margin of 56 percent to 31 percent in a new survey of public opinion in the closely watched Senate race.

Support for Collins, of Caribou, is stronger in northern and eastern Maine, where she has 62 percent of the vote, compared to southern Maine, where she has 50 percent. Collins also has support from 75 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents, compared with 39 percent of Democrats, the poll found.

A spokesman for Collins, who is seeking re-election to a third term in a race that is drawing national attention, said the campaign was encouraged by the numbers.

"This poll is a reflection of Sen. Collins' bipartisan record of accomplishment," said Kevin Kelley.

But Carol Andrews, a spokeswoman for Allen's campaign, noted that other polls reveal voter movement and a much closer race. She said the new poll simply shows that Collins has greater name recognition.

"That's something we've always known," Andrews said. "That will change once the paid advertising campaign meets the grass-roots campaign in a few weeks."

The results of the telephone poll of 400 registered voters who said they were likely to cast ballots, conducted from June 10-18 by Pan Atlantic SMS Group, show that 13 percent of respondents are undecided in the Nov. 4 election.

It found that 48 percent of respondents would vote for Collins, and 8 percent said they were leaning in her favor.

For Allen, a Portland resident and six-term incumbent in southern Maine's 1st Congressional District, the poll found that 29 percent of respondents would vote for him and 2 percent were leaning in his favor.

The poll, which asked respondents which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today, did not break down the results among demographic subgroups, such as age, gender or other characteristics.

That's because the relatively small sample size would make the results less reliable, said Patrick Murphy, president of Pan Atlantic.

The results differ significantly from those of a national firm, Rasmussen Reports, which released findings from an automated digital telephone poll on June 16 that showed Collins leading Allen by 49 percent to 42 percent. Three percent said they would vote for "other" and 6 percent were undecided.

Amy Fried, a political science professor at the University of Maine who has a strong research interest in polling, said the discrepancy is puzzling because both polls were done at about the same time.

"You have to have more polls to see what's going on," she said. "I think it's pretty unlikely that they both really nailed it and that there's been a change in opinion from one time to another."

The Pan Atlantic poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. That means that if the poll were repeated 100 times, in 95 cases the results would be within 5 percentage points of those reported.

The Rasmussen poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.

Murphy expressed confidence in his poll results, saying that "from previous work we've done on this race, Susan Collins has a pretty good margin."

He noted that although other incumbent Republican senators are thought to be imperiled by Democratic challengers, many analysts regard Collins as less vulnerable.

"So despite an extremely unpopular Republican brand, an extremely unpopular president and a tough economy, she's managed to hold onto public support, up to now at least," he said.

Kelley, the Collins spokesman, said the poll is a reflection of Collins' bipartisan record of accomplishment.

"For 12 years she has worked hard every day for all of us who live in Maine," he said. "It's clear that Mainers appreciate that hard work."

Andrews, speaking for the...