enlarge Jack Milton/Staff Photographer

Jack Flaherty walks past rows of tomato plants in one of eight greenhouses he owns in Scarborough. To harvest by early summer, he uses up to 80 gallons of heating oil per day to warm the greenhouses in winter.

enlarge Gordon Chibroski/Staff Photographer

Shawn Moore, chief executive of R.C. Moore Inc., says it is costing close to $250,000 a week to keep his fleet of shipping trucks on the road at recent diesel prices.

Click here to read stories in the "Fighting Back" series, participate in a poll and see how Maine manufacturers are coping.

CHANGES IN PETROLEUM PRODUCT COSTS

From 2005 to 2008GASOLINE: $1.6 billion to $2.8 billion

HOME HEATING OIL: $702 million to $1.3 billion

HIGHWAY DIESEL: $457 million to $997 million

RESIDUAL OIL: $298 million to $612 million

COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL: $278 million to $520 million

PROPANE: $192 million to $260 million

JET FUEL: $103 million to $193 million

OTHER: $76 million to $143 million

Source: Maine Office of Energy Independenceand Security

First of five parts

Maine residents and businesses will spend $3 billion more on petroleum this year than they did in 2005, an 81 percent increase, according to a first-ever analysis of state spending on oil.

This year, the average Maine household will hand over an additional $2,500 for petroleum products, compared to 2007.

“Most of this is just a giant sucking sound on the Maine economy,” said Ian Burnes, deputy director of the governor’s Office of Energy Independence and Security. “There’s no question this is going to have a negative effect in the short term.”

These conclusions are based on calculations done recently by the energy office and provided to the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram. They were expanded upon at the request of the newspaper by Charles Colgan, a professor at the University of Southern Maine who has broad experience in energy issues and economic forecasting.

The hardships caused by record oil prices make daily headlines, as Mainers use more of their disposable income to keep vehicles on the road, pay food prices driven up by the cost of petroleum-based fertilizer and freight transportation, or go into debt to fill oil tanks.

Less obvious, experts say, is the potential for expensive oil to make Maine’s economy stronger in the long run. That change is slowly starting to happen across Maine, as people move beyond disbelief and anger and start to seek solutions.

“These changes are extremely necessary,” Burnes said. “The more they happen, the more we will be prepared, if things get worse.”

The state analysis demonstrates how much Mainers are being hurt by rising oil prices. The study captures prices in mid-May and represents the first time Maine has tried to quantify the impact of soaring petroleum prices on the state’s economy.

UNDERESTIMATING THE PAIN

Spending on fuel oil, gasoline and other petroleum products is projected to grow from $3.7 billion in 2005 to $6.8 billion this year.

Viewed another way, the extra cost will steal 30 cents from each dollar of personal income growth Mainers have seen since 2005. Some specific cost estimates, compared with 2005:

Spending for on-road diesel will rise 118 percent, to nearly $1 billion.

The cost of heating homes and businesses will be up 87 percent.

Gasoline spending will increase 70 percent.

If anything, the calculations are likely to underestimate the pain. They were based on average prices last month for heating oil at $4 a gallon; gasoline at $3.84, and diesel at $4.68. Each of those averages has increased.

Just Friday, the cost of crude oil soared by more than $11 per barrel to nearly $140. Petroleum prices are expected to remain high through 2009, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.

Strong demand in China and tight worldwide supplies have been driving the run-up in prices.

But while high petroleum costs are painful now, it’s possible, Burnes and Colgan stress, that they will lead to beneficial changes in Maine’s economy.

Maine has wrestled before with crippling increases in oil prices, most notably in the 1970s. Residents, businesses and government reacted by stuffing in more insulation, choosing smaller cars, burning wood and enacting policies that promoted renewable resources.

The result was a more efficient economy, less dependent on imported petroleum. It gave Maine homes and businesses a cushion that eased the burden of subsequent oil price shocks in the 1980s.

But as oil prices fell in the 1990s, many of these steps lost traction. Large, harder-to-heat homes became popular, fuel economy took a back seat to comfort, wood fires were doused in favor of more convenient oil heat and state government pulled back on efficiency programs.

“The question,” Colgan...