This may be the year home prices bottom out in Maine.

That's what some real estate experts are predicting.

Maine hasn't experienced the deep slide in home prices that some states, such as Florida and California, have seen. And on a national level, the median price of an existing single-family home fell last year by nearly 2 percent, the first annual decline recorded by the National Association of Realtors since 1968. Sales tumbled 13 percent, the largest drop since 1982.

But the movement wasn't as dramatic in Maine, which tends to have a less volatile market than many areas.

Median home prices actually rose in 2007 by less than 1 percent, according to the Maine Real Estate Information System, to $194,000. Sales volume was off by 10 percent, however, reflecting the buying slump.

The trend in prices and sales in recent months has been down. And with a recession potentially under way or on the horizon, the question now may be how much further Maine home prices will fall before a national recovery takes hold.

In southern Maine's residential market, inventories are roughly the same as last year. Prices, which began trending down late last year, are likely to bottom out in the second quarter of 2008, according to Anne Weigel, a Realtor with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage.

Weigel offered her outlook in late January at the annual forecast conference of the Maine Real Estate & Development Association. The region will remain a buyers market this year, Weigel said, and sellers need to be realistic about pricing their homes.

Her assessment was a bit more optimistic than some national forecasts, and the view offered by Charles Colgan, an economist at the University of Southern Maine. He saw a continued decline in housing indicators through the rest of this year, with a recovery beginning in 2009. One limiting factor, Colgan said: The fallout from the closing of Brunswick Naval Air Station.

Staff Writer Tux Turkel can be contacted at 791-6462 or at:

tturkel@pressherald.com