Nowhere in Maine was the historic housing boom of the early part of this decade as pronounced as in the state's southernmost county.
Now that the real estate market has turned and the talk is of rising foreclosures and a possible recession rather than eye-popping appreciation in property values, it seems that York County might have farther to fall than other regions of the state.
But those who pay close attention to the local economy in southern Maine say they believe York County is well positioned to withstand a downturn in the housing market and business activity. They point to the region's diverse economy, a mix of manufacturing, retail and health care jobs, as one of its best defenses against a slowdown or a recession.
No one claims that York County is immune to larger economic trends in Maine or the nation. There has been a noticeable softening of the region's residential real estate market over the past year, and several local officials say that likely will continue into 2008. Those who watch the local economy say the region's retailers are reporting slower sales, and fewer companies are moving into the area.
But York County has not tied its fortunes to any single company or industry. For every segment of the economy that is looking weak, local economic development officials point to other sectors that are holding their own or growing. In addition, many people are looking to a few major ongoing projects as promising signs for future growth in the area.
"If we do wind up in a recession, I wouldn't expect it to be severe," said Jim Brayley, chairman of the Department of Business and Communications at the University of New England in Biddeford.
In Brayley's estimation, there is a 2-1 chance of the nation falling into a recession this year. As a member of the board of directors at the Biddeford-Saco Chamber of Commerce, Brayley said he is already hearing from local businesses who say their sales have begun to dip.
Nevertheless, the professor said he remained optimistic that York County would be relatively unscathed. He pointed to the region's mixed economy as one form of security. Another protection, he said, is a large population of wealthy retirees who have moved into the county over the last decade.
"They don't seem to be particularly influenced by some of the same things that would bother people who are gainfully employed," he said.
Southern Maine Regional Planning Director Paul Shumacher offered a similar view from the other side of the county. Shumacher, who is based in Sanford, recalled the region's last severe recession in the early 1990s and said there were key differences between then and now. In the 1990s, he said, a crash in the housing market was accompanied by a dramatic cutback in defense spending that led York County's largest employer, the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, to slash its payroll.
Today, Schumacher said, the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard is on a steady keel and even hiring. Though the housing market has slowed down dramatically, Schumacher said the employment rate had not yet suffered. He said the local economy now has many more points of support than it had in the past and should be able to sustain a downturn.
"My sense is that while things may slow, it's not going to grind to a halt like it did in the early '90s," he said.
One place in York County that isn't showing any sign of slowing down is Main Street in Saco. On the north side of town, Elliot Chamberlain is set to break ground on the first phase of a 300-acre mixed-use development this spring. On the southern end of the street, a swarm of construction workers is transforming an old mill building into a brew pub as the first phase in a $100 million redevelopment on Saco Island.
The three-year project involves converting the old mills into loft condominiums and commercial space as well as building 30 townhouses and a...
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