Skyrocketing real-estate prices. Rising property taxes. More people from "away." More traffic.

"I'd take the city back to what it was in the 1940s," said Raymond "Pete" Wescott, 86, a retired telephone company worker who was born on his mother's kitchen table in East Deering. He has lived in that neighborhood all his life and raised a family there.

Problems different for long-time residents, newcomers
by Kelley Bouchard
Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram
November 24, 2005

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Talk to people from "away," however, and they see Maine's largest city as a haven. Many come from larger, more congested urban areas across the United States where real estate prices, traffic, crime and other problems are much worse.

Michael and Deborah Collins moved here in May from Milford, Conn. They decided to head north when the company Michael he worked for moved its marketing department from Stamford, Conn., to New York City.

They didn't want to move to Manhattan, where the cost of living is exorbitant. If they had stayed in Connecticut, his train commute would have stretched to two hours.

"Now, I hop in my car, I drive 10 minutes and I'm at work," said Michael Collins, 38, who lives in the North Deering neighborhood and works at Swardlick Marketing Group in the Old Port.

"On the way, I drive along the Eastern Promenade. I love the view of Casco Bay. It's a lot less grueling than I was used to. It also makes the work week go a lot faster. I have a lot more time to do other things because I'm not spending that time commuting."

Perception. It's a major factor in what's drawing some people to Portland and what's forcing others to leave.

But the problems long-time residents see, from growing traffic congestion to cash-strapped schools and police, represent some of the challenges that Portland faces as it anticipates its largest development boom in more than a century.

In truth, Portland's growth pales in comparison to states like Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Nevada attracts 7,700 people per month, or 10 people per hour, according to Census estimates.

Portland's population fell 0.2 percent between 1990 and 2000, from 64,358 to 64,249, and dated Census projections say it will continue to drop.

Local planners expect Portland's population to increase modestly in coming years as the city encourages housing construction to reverse the downward trend. However, if the city gains all 4,200 hoped-for housing units by 2012, with an average household size of two people, Portland's population would increase by 8,400 at best.

Growing Divide

Still, the city faces unprecedented development, and its socio-economic makeup is changing. As the cost of housing increases and single-family homes become more precious, many families are leaving Portland. Developers are building lots of subsidized apartments for the working poor and luxury condominiums for young professionals, baby-boomers and empty-nesters who think Portland is "cool."

If the trend continues, experts say, the challenge will be to maintain a high quality of life for a population that's divided between rich and poor and infused with people whose commitment to the city can be expected to last as long as Portland stays attractive and entertaining.

Cities without children are creepy, but it happens"

Many of the urbanites moving to Portland work in finance, marketing, consulting and other professional and creative fields that can be based anywhere that has an airport and Internet service.

Many newcomers in the over-50 set are planning to live here part time, so their concern for the community likely will be divided as well. While some newcomers may grow invested over time, their initial ties to Portland may be limited.

"I think you'll see Portland starting to look more like Boston," said Joel Kotkin, author of "The City: A Global History," and "The New Geography: How the Digital Revolution is Reshaping the American Landscape."

"It will shift from being a middle-class city of aspiration . . . to an ephemeral city with a very high per-capita income but little job growth and few children," Kotkin said. "Cities without children are creepy, but it happens. Look at San Francisco. People move away and the schools suffer and then more people move away. Eventually, (Portland) may be a city where the only children are poor children."

To keep Portland vital, Kotkin and others say, the city must invest in its roads, transportation, economy, public safety and schools, among other things.

Local officials are starting to realize the breadth of work that must be done.

Regional, state and local officials are working on plans to improve travel for Portland residents and commuters from surrounding towns. Early next year, the City Council will complete a long-awaited downtown traffic study that calls for major improvements to Franklin Arterial and Forest Avenue and their connections to Interstate 295. The METRO bus service is working to increase ridership, including a first-ever review of long-established routes.

The city is trying to regionalize and combine public services with other communities. The council is working on a way to charge developers for road, sewer and park improvements. And Portland's planning department will start a study this monthto help streamline the development process and reduce costs for both taxpayers and developers.

"A primary function of government is to keep costs down, and time is money," said Lee Urban, Portland's director of planning and development.

Demands on Taxpayers

As Portland evolves, its toughest challenges will be preserving safe neighborhoods and maintaining good schools. Both have put Portland on national lists of safest cities and best places to raise children. Police and school budgets already demand a lot from taxpayers, and that need likely will intensify in the future.

Portland's crime rate dropped significantly in the last two decades. In 1987, the city reported 8,176 serious crimes, ranging from larceny and car theft to murder. In 2004, the number of serious crimes fell to 3,282. The crime rate nationally also declined during that period, but not to the same extent.

Looking ahead, the police department faces the prospect of maintaining that trend with declining resources. The department is authorized to have 162 officers, including command staff, but not all the positions are currently filled, said City Manager Joseph Gray Jr.

The reasons range from recent retirements to long-term illness to the time it takes to train new officers. New homeland security demands at the city-owned Portland International Jetport have sapped the community-policing program, leaving 60 officers to cover five patrol shifts, or about 12 officers per shift.

With the recent departure of long-time Police Chief Michael Chitwood, Gray said, the new chief, Tim Burton, will be expected to adjust police coverage to meet demand and plead the case for increased staffing as the city's population grows and changes in the future.

"A quality, professional police force is important to maintain," Gray said. "It's an important element of the quality of life in any city."

Schools in Flux

The challenge to maintain quality schools will be even more acute.

Portland's student population dropped 49 percent in the last 35 years, from 14,188 in 1970 to 7,201 today. As families left and property values increased, education funding from the state decreased. Since 1999, annual state aid for Portland schools fell 32 percent, from $15.7 million to $10.7 million. In the same period, the local school budget increased 16 percent, from $65.5 million to $78.4 million, according to school officials.

Having a strong school system makes us an appealing place for families to live"

Recent changes in Maine's school-funding formula may benefit Portland next year, with a projected increase of $2 million or more in state aid. It's unclear, however, whether Portlanders will see a corresponding drop in property taxes.

Regardless, money for schools will remain tight, and the need to consolidate and reallocate resources will grow.

The city is building its first new school in nearly 30 years on Munjoy Hill, an increasingly gentrified neighborhood in Portland's East End. It's part of a $58 million plan to consolidate, rebuild and renovate the city's elementary schools.

It's a controversial decision. Formerly the home of two elementary schools, the East End has lost so many families in recent years that students will be bused from other neighborhoods to fill the new 450-student school.

With that in mind, school officials are revamping a 2002 plan that called for closing three or four of 11 neighborhood elementary schools. Rather than maintain seven or eight "anchor" schools, it's likely that Portland will need - and be able to afford - only six, said Mary Jo O'Connor, school superintendent.

The Nathan Clifford School in particular, located near the University of Southern Maine, may be closed and its students bused to the new East End school. Students also may be bused from Bayside, where several housing projects are planned.

"We're aware that the population that's slated to go to this (new) school could be eradicated within the next decade," O'Connor said. "As we shift our boundary lines, this new East End school may serve several neighborhoods."

O'Connor said she plans to keep Portland schools competitive by staying ahead of educational trends, offering broad educational choices and being frugal with school funding. And she's letting people know about it by stepping up the school department's marketing effort, including an updated Web site and a new promotional video for real estate agents.

"We need to make it explicit who we are and position ourselves as the education engine of the state," O'Connor said. "Having a strong school system makes us an appealing place for families to live. Having a strong school system is a key to having a strong city."

Staff Writer Kelley Bouchard can be contacted at 791-6328 or at: kbouchard@pressherald.com