Saturday, April 14, 2007
WASHINGTON - An anti-war group's advertisement targeting Republican Sen. Susan Collins and her Internet-only response represented more than a clash over setting a deadline for withdrawing troops from Iraq.
The exchange became the opening salvo in a political campaign in which Democrats hope to unseat Collins, who is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country in the 2008 election, according to several nonpartisan organizations that monitor political campaigns.
The race will help decide the balance of a narrowly divided Senate, so it is expected to eclipse the state-record $8 million that Collins and her opponent, Chellie Pingree, spent in 2002.
And because Maine is a relatively inexpensive place to advertise, out-of-state advocacy groups and national party organizations are expected to broadcast an unprecedented number of ads in Maine over the next 18 months.
"I think it's going to be a tough race," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The group Americans United for Change bought $100,000 worth of television advertising running over 10 days ending Friday to criticize Collins' opposition to a deadline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
The ad, also posted online, was pegged to a March 29 vote on a spending bill that set a 120-day time frame to withdraw troops, which Collins opposed as too short. She urged another review of strategy this summer, to gauge progress from President Bush's plan to send 20,000 more troops to Iraq, which she voted against.
The ad featured noisy explosions with images of chaos in Iraq as a backdrop, and references to 3,243 dead troops and the troop surge. The ad also pictured Collins standing behind President Bush, whose popularity has suffered because of the war.
The group paid for similar ads against only two other Republicans who face re-election next year: Sens. John Sununu of New Hampshire and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chamber's minority leader. Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, opposed the measure along with Collins but wasn't mentioned in the ad.
In the 51-47 vote, only two Republicans, Sens. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Gordon Smith of Oregon, voted with the Democrats.
Collins' campaign posted a rebuttal on the Web site YouTube that criticized the original ad as funded by out-of-state Democratic and labor groups. Her campaign criticized the ad's use of her speech, in which she opposed the troop increase, and its use of a picture of her with Bush at a bill signing that had nothing to do with Iraq.
Collins said people in Maine have voiced disgust with the ad, and she argued that the message, bought with out-of-state funding, doesn't match the state's tradition of clean campaigns.
"The ad grossly distorts my position and attempts to mislead viewers," Collins said. "Fortunately, however, based on the reaction that I've gotten from people all over the state, Mainers reject that type of attack ad."
Jeremy Funk, a spokesman for Americans United for Change, said the picture with Bush perfectly symbolizes her support of the administration in authorizing the war and opposing a deadline for withdrawing.
"She voted against the most significant piece of legislation regarding Iraq policy since the vote to authorize the war," Funk said. "This is not about elections. This is about bringing an end to the war."
Funk said his group attracts progressive contributors such as organized labor because it has opposed the Iraq war and Bush's proposal to allow private investment for Social Security funds.
Collins, however, said viewers could see it as a Democratic attack because it didn't name Snowe or others who voted the same way.
"I don't think anyone in Maine is fooled by the attempt to say that this is a nonpartisan ad," she said. "That's absurd on its face."
Collins' use of YouTube to rebut the ad was perhaps a first for a politician in Maine and part of a national trend toward nontraditional venues for political messages.
The Web site offers a quick way to post videos created at far lower production cost -- and no broadcast cost -- than the typical TV spot. But the site draws far fewer viewers than statewide TV advertising does.
As of Friday evening, the Americans United for Change ad, posted on YouTube on April 2, had registered over 28,000 "views." The Collins response, posted April 5, had registered more than 5,000.
"I viewed it as something of a positive sign from that campaign, embracing new media," Duffy said. "She's being vigilant, not letting this go unanswered without having to dump a lot of money to do it."
No matter who challenges Collins, the relatively inexpensive Maine TV market is expected to attract significant out-of-state and national spending. It costs three times as much to reach a statewide audience in Minnesota as it does in Maine, and four times as much in New Hampshire because of the Boston television rates.
The 2002 campaign between Collins and Pingree was by far the most expensive in state history, with each side raising about $4 million.
"This will top that," Duffy predicted.
Democrats captured control of the Senate in November with a narrow 51-49 majority. But Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., has been absent for health reasons so far this term, and his replacement with a Republican would tip the balance to Republicans, because Vice President Dick Cheney would break the tie.
Collins had $435,657 in her campaign fund at the end of the year. Democratic Rep. Tom Allen, her presumed challenger, had $501,849 on hand.
Although he has expressed an interest in the campaign, Allen hasn't announced whether he will challenge Collins and hasn't set a deadline for deciding. The latest campaign-finance reports, for contributions through the end of March, are due next week.
The Collins race is considered competitive because Maine supported Democrats in the last two presidential and gubernatorial races, and because the Iraq war is increasingly unpopular.
The advantages an incumbent enjoys in raising money and publicizing accomplishments force any challenger to attack early, however.
"I think the stakes are so high for the next election cycle that it's understandable," said Oliver Woshinsky, political science professor emeritus at the University of Southern Maine. "The only way to beat an incumbent is that you have to get some negative information about them out."
Collins still is expected to win at this point, but hers is considered one of the country's three or four most competitive Senate races.
Stuart Rothenberg, who writes a column for the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call, rates Collins as the only vulnerable incumbent. The Colorado seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard is causing more uncertainty.
The Cook Political Report calls the Allard seat its only tossup. Collins and Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., have seats that "lean Republican."
Even though Mainers have favored Democrats for president and governor this decade, Snowe won re-election in November with 74 percent of the vote. Collins beat Pingree with 58 percent of the vote.
Maine notoriously has little independent polling.
"Republicans say her numbers are good, just below Snowe's in terms of favorability and job approval," Duffy said. "Democrats say, 'Oh, no, no, no.' They see lots of opportunities."
Certainly, Democrats are confident.
"You look at the polling numbers of Republican senators, and the war in Iraq is a lead weight attached to their ankles," said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., who heads his party's campaign committee. "They're going to look extinction in the eye. It's not an accident that the ones who are squirming the most are the ones who are up in '08."
But Collins expressed confidence that her Senate work over the past decade will win her a third term.
"I'm just going to continue doing the best job that I can for the people of Maine," Collins said. "My hope (is) that that approach, which is the same approach that I've taken during the last 10 years, will be successful."
Washington D.C. Correspondent Bart Jansen can be contacted at (202) 488-1119 or at:
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Lying is not chic, people. She lied to advance her political career! Oh, but apparently to the GOPers here in Maine, she's no different than George W. Bush so she's a goddess in your eyes, huh?
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Oh and MainelyJack, Tom Allen didn't vote for the Iraq occupation to begin with. He's not a weasel like Collins who is now trying to weasel out of her voting record for the past seven years!
Tom Allen will continue to be the beacon of peace that he is for the people of Maine. The End.
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Wake up and stay out of Maine and leave our politicians alone - take care of yours.report abuse
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