Odds of ousting governor still slim

By PAUL CARRIER, Staff Writer

Copyright © 2006 Blethen Maine Newspapers Inc.

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AUGUSTA ‹ It can be done. But it won't be easy.

That's what election records show and political experts say as four challengers try to prevent Gov. John Baldacci from spending four more years in the Blaine House.

Pundits have long speculated that the Democratic incumbent is vulnerable , partly because of mixed signals on the economy. Opinion polls suggest significant dissatisfaction with his performance, and in the June 13 primary, little-known challenger Chris Miller took 24 percent of the vote, which some observers interpreted as a sign of the governor's weakness.

But key statistics in the game of gubernatorial politics give Baldacci an edge come Nov 7.

A career politician, Baldacci has lost only one election ­ a 1980 state Senate bid ­ in almost 30 years of running for the Bangor City Council, the Legislature, Congress and the Blaine House. And experts say the power of incumbency usually keeps governors in office on Election Day.

"Generally, incumbency is strong" unless governors make major missteps that anger voters, said political scientist Thad Beyle of the University of North Carolina, a nationally recognized expert on the job of governor.

Republican governors are sweating it out this year because of President Bush's sagging poll numbers, Beyle said, but that obviously won't hurt Baldacci, and it may even help him.

"People know who the governor is, so the governor does not have to spend a lot of time telling people who the governor is," Beyle said. And unlike publicity-starved challengers who sometimes have to scramble for attention, "the governor can call news conferences and the press goes to them," he said.

Baldacci sidesteps questions about whether he is beatable, saying, "the people will be making a decision about how they want to move this state forward over the next four years."

Progress has been made, Baldacci said, but more needs to be done.

OPPONENTS SEE WEAKNESS

His opponents are less reticent.

Baldacci has "overpromised and underdelivered," so "a lack of leadership and a lack of results" make him vulnerable, said Chris Jackson, the campaign manager for Republican Chandler Woodcock. Green Independent Patricia LaMarche said Baldacci's promises on such issues as health care and the economy "haven't panned out."

Independent Barbara Merrill says voters see Baldacci as "a weak leader who doesn't have a plan to get us out of the slump we're in." And fellow independent Phillip Morris NaPier says voters are tired of Baldacci because he's "been around forever" and he isn't "bringing anything new to the mix."

Yet state and national election records suggest Baldacci is the man to beat. It's been four decades since Maine voters turned out an incumbent governor seeking re-election. In 1966, Democratic challenger Kenneth Curtis beat Republican Gov. John Reed, 53 percent to 47 percent.

Curtis won re-election four years later, narrowly defeating GOP challenger James Erwin. In the decades that followed, three other incumbents sought re-election successfully.

The list includes Democrat Joseph Brennan, who was first elected in 1978 and re-elected in 1982; Republican John McKernan, who won in 1986 and again in 1990; and independent Angus King, who followed his 1994 win with another in 1998.

Nationally, election results tell a similar story ­ research published by the Council of State Governments shows that 74 percent of the governors who ran for re-election from 1970 through 2005 kept their jobs.

Still, the council's statistics are no consolation for the 26 percent who lost.

Here in Maine, two of the four incumbents who won second terms in recent decades did so by narrow margins.

In 1970, Curtis beat Erwin by less than 1 percent. And in 1990, Brennan, then a former two-term governor, came close to unseating McKernan, who took about 47 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Brennan. A minor candidate placed a distant third.

Incumbency offers no re-election guarantees, said political scientist Mark Brewer of the University of Maine. And Bal-dacci has problems, Brewer said, including a sense that Maine's economy is anemic.

"Perception is ultimately what matters, and right now it's perceived that things are not going that well in Maine," he said. There is, he said, "a sort of malaise in Maine" these days.

That could hurt Baldacci, Brewer said, because discontented voters tend to blame the governor for their woes, not the Legislature or the state's congressional delegation. Some polls suggest Baldacci's approval rating dropped from a high of 72 percent in 2003 to less than 50 percent earlier this year.

CROWDED RACE CHANGES DYNAMICS

Then there is the calculus of this year's five-person race, which features four major candidates ­ Baldacci, Woodcock, LaMarche and Merrill. NaPier is regarded as a minor candidate in part because his campaign is broke ­ a finance report he filed in July listed $21 in cash on hand, and he said in an interview last month, "I don't have any money, that's for sure."

If LaMarche and Merrill lose but pull votes from Baldacci, that could help Woodcock. The theory is that if Baldacci, LaMarche and Merrill split the moderate/liberal vote, the race may tighten enough for Woodcock to eke out a win.

Yet despite all that, Brewer sees Baldacci as the favorite, and not only because he is well-known, well-financed and a proven winner.

Brewer said some voters who dislike Baldacci's performance may decide the alternatives are no better. He sees Miller's strong primary showing as an early, safe protest vote by disenchanted Democrats who will fall into line Nov. 7, if only to keep Woodcock out of the Blaine House.

Unlike some observers, Brewer believes Merrill, whom he describes as "the wild card" in the race, may draw votes from both Baldacci and Woodcock. If that happens, a strong showing by Merrill will not necessarily help Woodcock at Baldacci's expense.

Brewer argues that Woodcock may be hampered by his own low profile to date and by the risk that he is too far to the right on social issues to solidify the GOP base, let alone reach out to Democrats and independents.

Jackson, Woodcock's campaign manager, says Woodcock is running as hard as he can with "extremely limited resources" on a platform that focuses on the economy, government spending, taxes and health care, not social issues.

Baldacci is "beatable in theory," Brewer said, but theory and practice may prove to be two very different things.

Staff Writer Paul Carrier can be contacted at 622-7511 or at: pcarrier@pressherald.com