A new poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, a nonpartisan polling firm, shows that Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, leads her likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Tom Allen, by 16 points, 54 to 38 percent.

The poll reported that Collins leads Allen by 20 points among men, 17 points among women, and 20 points among unaffiliated voters.

Collins has a combined 72 percent very and somewhat favorable rating and a 27 combined somewhat and very unfavorable rating. Allen’s numbers are 59 and 34 percent, respectively.

Throughout 2006, pollsters told me that an incumbent's favorable/unfavorable rating is a better indicator than the horse race number because it is a better signal of incumbent strength and weakness.

When a favorable/unfavorable rating drops below 50, it is very dangerous for an incumbent. However, as Allen keeps pointing out, former GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee’s favorable rating dropped from 76 to 67 percent and Sheldon Whitehouse still trounced him.

There are going to be a lot of polls by outside groups, some reputable, some not. But what we really want to see are the campaigns' internal polls. They are done by reliable and professional pollsters and usually more complete.

The Rasmussen poll was conducted April 1 and surveyed 500 people. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen polls are automated phone calls to potential voters. A recording asks questions and a responder punches in numbers to answer (1 for yes, 2 for no). I've never received a call. If anyone has, let me know if this is accurate.

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