What if McCain had not picked Palin but had picked a centrist Republican?

Given the nearly even breakdown of Democrat/Republican voters nationally, pundits have long said that independents would determine the Presidential race, and that is what appears to BE/have happened. Polling indicated that since September 10, or a week after the end of the Republican National Convention, independents have moved gradually, then after the financial crisis, in a large mass to Obama. What if McCain had chosen a centrist and experienced person as his Vice President? For example, what if he had chosen the Governor of a battle ground state like Governor Ridge who might bring in not just Pennsylvania but Ohio? Alternately, what if he had picked a Midwest Governor like Pawlenty who would could have delivered his state and perhaps the Midwest and west states that eventually came into play? Or what if he had chosen as his VP the Governor with his highest name recognition, Governor Romney, who might only deliver New Hampshire but who would bring to the ticket the economic and business knowledge that McCain himself acknowledged he did not have. In any of these cases, it is extremely possible that the exodus of independents from McCain after 9/10 would not have happened. It is even possible that the election would have been McCain's, given the lack of any financial expertise in the Obama/Biden ticket.

What if Obama had chosen Hillary as his VP?

First, it is almost certain that McCain would not have chosen Palin, as there would been no disaffected female voters to be "stolen" from Obama. McCain's decision could would then have been a hard one, whether to turn to a candidate that would solidify his weak support with the "base" (perhaps by choosing Huckabee), or by choosing a centrist VP to counter the perceived far left wing bias of the Obama/Clinton ticket. Again, independents would have a strong role to play in many states, and while Clinton might have drawn some of those who vote for her husband but were leery of Obama in the primaries, a Romney might well have tipped the balance to McCain.

What if Clinton had voted against the Iraq War in 2002?

It is clear that Clinton entered the Senate in 2000 in order to position herself for a run for President. Insiders indicate that she was deeply torn over how to vote on the Iraq measure, but in the end, she deemed it appropriate to vote in favor of the measure least she be stuck with the "female weak on security" label. If, instead, Clinton had voted against the measure, Obama would not have had the single issue that galvanized his campaign in the beginning. Indeed, it is extremely possible that Obama would not have even entered the primaries, or if he did, his position against the war would have been negated by Clinton's actual vote against the war, and his lack of experience on the national stage would be trumped by her experience. In the end, it might have been a Clinton/Biden ticket.

What if McCain had not played to the "base?"

Did McCain actually need to devote as much effort in the general election to what is referred to as the Republican "base:" the pro-life, anti-homosexual religious right? McCain had won the primaries largely without their support, which indicates to me that using the term "base" is a misnomer when used to refer to this group. It is VERY possible that those who voted for McCain in the primaries ARE the REAL REPUBLICAN BASE, and that the religious right tail of the party is just that. Further, it is highly unlikely that this tail would have sat out the election if McCain did not play to them, knowing that IF they did sit out and if McCain lost, any gains the religious right tail made during the Bush era would be gone. Instead, if McCain had used as HIS BASE the center of the Republican Party and like thinking independents, he could have soothed the hard feelings of the tail by the promise of a Supreme Court justice. American Presidential politics is rife with the bones of Presidential candidates who have played to the fringes of their party and ignored the political middle. In fact, there is not a single President who has attained initial election by playing largely to the tail.

Now, what are YOUR what ifs?

Peter B. Hayward

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