We have less than 40 hours left for an October Surprise, BUT the real surprise, I think, will be a November Surprise.
And what is the November Surprise? The popular vote breakdown when the polls close.
Today, Pollster.com's analysis of numerous polls has Obama ahead in the national Presidential polls by 6%, but I predict that the final POPULAR VOTE total will be much closer.
There are two reasons for my thinking:
- The level at which the newly registered voters will turn out ON ELECTION DAY will be much lower than projected by many polling models
- There is serious concern amongst some voters about actually voting for America's first African-American nominee, regardless of what they may have told pollsters or others.
In the first case, I believe that the great mass of the first time voters who pushed Obama across the line in the primaries will NOT turn out ON ELECTION DAY in the numbers now projected in most polling models.
I expect that the percentage of their turnout on election day will be less than one-third of the turnout of the 40+ year old voting groups.
(It is true that numbers of first time voters have voted early.)
The first time voters are less likely to vote early, and -- I believe the following are the keys -- the first time voters may well come to the polls without government issued IDs or could turn away from the very long lines at the polling stations if they believe that Obama is "far ahead" nationally.
These first time voters get their news largely from the internet, and from each other, and do not have the advantage of having voted in or having followed the vagaries of past elections.
Long term voters are more likely to get their news from traditional outlets, including analysts, have seen past polling and vote swings, and know that every vote DOES count.
A decreased turn out by the first time voters in the key toss up states listed in my October 27 blog could result in those states going to McCain.
On the second matter, I have talked to a fair number of long term voters throughout rural northern New England over the last few days, and I believe that some voters have a very real concern about voting for America's first African-American Presidential candidate.
These voters are, by in large, those now described as undecided, but I believe some are also projected as voting for Obama base on the analysis that result from sampling.
What I believe we will see is a phenomenon called the "Bradley Effect".
In 1982, Tom Bradley, the multi-term African American mayor of Los Angles, ran for Governor of California. Although comfortably ahead of his white opponent in the state-wide polls, Bradley lost the election.
Subsequent analysis of the exit polling indicated that a larger percentage of voters who were polled stated they would vote for Bradly than actually did so on election day.
In the 1989 Virginia election for Governor, polls showed African American Douglas Wilder ahead of his white opponent by nine points. On election day, he won by only one percentage point. Analysis of the exit polling indicated the same effect.
In my travels, a fair number of people tell me they were thinking about voting for Obama, but were unsure and would wait until next week.
My bet is that when SOME, but not necessarily all of these voters enter the booth, they may well choose the "devil they know" rather than they one they have heard rumors about.
In states with large Obama polling leads like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon, Washington, etc., the "Bradley Effect" may not matter, but in the six toss up states and in states with large concentrations of still undecided voters, this swing could well matter.
In fact, I believe that Obama's popular vote percentage totals in these states could go down by as much as 10%.
So the November Surprise is that the national POPULAR VOTE breakdown will be closer than it is now projected to be because of significant under representation on election day by the newly registered voters and because of the Bradley effect.
Of course, we will only know whether either or both occurred when the the exit polls come out after the election.
In the end, however, my prediction is still that Obama will take the electoral vote.
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