As I wrote in my October 3rd blog entitled Ignore the National Polls, those polls simply represent a beauty contest, a snap shot of how people would vote nationally.

As I wrote, those polls completely ignore one fact:

"every four years we forget that the President is elected by the Electoral College vote and NOT by the total popular vote."

What is important is not the popular vote, (Gore won that in 2000 election). What is important now is the Electoral College (EC) standing, and who gets to 270 EC votes.

For example, one national poll shows Obama at 50% and McCain at 47% in the popular vote. If we just translated those percentages into EC votes, Obama would be standing at 269 EC votes, McCain at 253, with 16 votes undecided.

Instead, due to the undemocratic nature of the EC vote, most pollsters have Obama over the required EC number of 270 with his numbers ranging from 273 to 306 with 91 to 61 undecided.

The major states which are under contest are largely those in my October 3rd blog:

FL (27 EC votes), IN (11), OH (20), NV (5), NC (15), MO (11) -- total 89

Karl Rove, previously Deputy Chief of Staff and chief political adviser to George W. Bush, predicted last week that the EC vote stood at Obama 306, McCain 171 with 61 undecided. Thus, KarlRove&Co. shares with three other sites the high end of the EC estimated standing for Obama.

KarlRove&Co

Obama = 306
McCain = 171
Toss-ups = 61

Rothenberg Reports

Obama = 306
McCain = 163
Toss-ups = 69

Pollster.com

Obama = 306
McCain = 142
Toss-ups = 90

Realclearpolitics.com

Obama =306
McCain = 157
Toss-ups = 75

Rassmussen

Obama = 286
McCain = 178
Toss-ups = 76

New York Times

Obama = 286
McCain = 163
Toss-ups = 89

CNN

Obama = 277
McCain = 174
Toss-ups = 87

Zogby

Obama = 273
McCain = 174
Toss-ups = 91

And there are always outliers; Electoral-vote.com has the following

Electoral-vote.com

Obama = 375
McCain = 157
Toss-ups = 6

If McCain were assigned all the 89 EC votes listed in the 6 toss up states I have listed above (FL, IN, OH, NV, NC, MO), the results would be

Obama = 286
McCain = 252

Thus, to win the election, besides sweeping all these states, McCain would have to steal 17 votes from Obama's assumed total, perhaps by winning rust belt Pennsylvania. While Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004, that state is rife with Reagan Democrats and went for Clinton in the primaries. However, most polling shows Obama with nearly a 10 point lead there.

Alternately, McCain could peel off Colorado and Wisconsin from Obama's totals, gaining 19 and the presidency. Polling has Obama, however, up 6 in Colorado and 7 in Wisconsin.

For McCain, the biggest problem is that by looking at the pollster.com trend lines for the 6 toss up states I assigned to McCain, Obama is trending upwards in all. Momentum plus staff on the ground is key in most races.

Ignoring trend however, Obama's lead in all but Ohio and Nevada is 2%, thus my projected EC vote today is:

Obama = 311
McCain = 227

(Obama: Ohio, Nevada. McCain: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri)

But there are eight days left and time for an October surprise.

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2008 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

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