With the VP debate over, the media will now breathlessly announce moves in the national Presidential polls.
The media does this because it is part of the 90 second WOW factor: the polls' moves get the viewer's attention, and the media has led the viewer to believe that these polls are meaningful.
But in truth, the national Presidential polls have little predictive power because every four years we forget that the President is elected by the Electoral College vote and NOT by the total popular vote.
The United States is the ONLY nation with its leader elected in this undemocratic manner. Three times in the nation's history, the Presidential candidate who won the popular vote has been denied office by the winner of the electoral vote (2000, 1888, and 1876).
By focusing on the results of the national polls, the media is simply telling us what the popular mood is, and what the popular vote total would likely to be if the election were held on the day the poll was taken.
This year, 270 Electoral College votes are needed to attain the Presidency. Based on state polling, states are assigned to candidates as being "Safe," meaning the state is fully expected to go for one of the candidates, "Likely," "Leans," and "Neutral or Toss Up."
For example:
Texas is safe for McCain -- California is safe for Obama
Georgia is likely for McCain -- Maine is likely for Obama
Indiana leans towards McCain -- Oregon leans towards Obama.
Typically, Presidential candidates do not campaign for the popular vote but
for the electoral vote, and especially for the electoral vote in Neutral or Toss Up states.
To follow the true ebb and flow of the Presidential election, follow the state polls and the standing of the candidates in Electoral College projections. Pay special attention to the states that are listed as Neutral or Toss up College projections.
I believe the election will be decided by the electoral votes of just six states: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.
Your key states may be different, but that is the beauty of handicapping the election yourself instead of depending on the media.
Several sites that collect all available national and state polls and visually display Electoral College projections are
Subscribe
Interested in becoming one of our community bloggers? 