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July 28, 2008
A Dismal Economy?
Posted by Peter Cutler

Not long ago my wife and I enjoyed a wonderful meal at a restaurant located on Lisbon Street in Lewiston.

Following dinner we walked leisurely back to our car and I was struck by the pleasant surroundings of that section of Lisbon Street where it joins Main Street. A lot of work has been done to renovate the area.

This observation started me thinking about how the Lewiston/Auburn area has changed over the last few years. The Bates Mill complex is also the result of extensive planning and renovation and there is the major addition of the huge Wal Mart distribution center that has provided new jobs for citizens and tax revenue for the municipality.

There is new construction in the area of the Auburn Mall and a variety eating places and shopping opportunities are available. I am slightly surprised at the popularity of the Margaritas' addition, since spicy food has taken some time to gain a foothold here in Maine. Auburn residents have also benefited from the hard work done by Mayor John Jenkins and the City Council who were determined to avoid any tax increases for the current year and have met that goal (any chance of moving that whole crew up to Augusta?). An interesting side note; John Jenkins has previously successfully served as Mayor of Lewiston. He would appear to be a guy who knows how to get things done.

There is currently construction going on in the heart of Freeport that will result in a large new parking garage and additional businesses in the same complex.

Scarborough now has an enormous draw for sportsmen with the opening of the big Cabelas' retail complex. The wildlife exhibits alone are a good reason for a trip to that store.

Bangor has the new casino that is reportedly bringing significant revenue and jobs to the area.

All of these things got me thinking about a recent article in the Portland Press Herald online highlighting a Critical Insights survey claiming that 91% of Mainers feel that the economy has become worse than this time last year and that only 15% look forward to any improvement during the next year.

The examples that I have listed have brought new significant jobs in construction and then other opportunities after the construction/renovations have been completed. And yet, after telephone interviews with "602 Mainers" and having a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, we are presented with a dismal view of the economy?

I was told once that polls and surveys should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism since their purpose was not to inform, but to influence.

Companies and pollsters who are paid to conduct surveys will insist that their findings are based on the latest scientific methods, but I personally find it difficult to have confidence in conclusions drawn after interviewing 602 people out of our population of approximately 1.3 million residents.

Also, I can't help but wonder who paid for this survey. After all, this is an election year. According to Mark Brewer, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maine, "the average American voter sees the President as overwhelmingly responsible for the economy, for good or ill".

Perhaps, but I would be more inclined to look at the Governor and the Legislature as having more significant responsibility for our local economy.

Posted by Peter Cutler at 12:23 PM

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Comments

I agree - it would be nice to know who paid for this survey. The last Critical Insights poll I saw, which said three fourths of Mainers, including smokers, wanted to raise the tax on cigarettes, was financed by an anti-smoking consortium. Go figure. More enlightening was actually reading the questions they asked.

If margin of error is 1 divided by the square root of the sample size, the margin of error for this poll should be about 4.1, not 3.4. Of course, I wouldn't bet the farm on my math.

And in the end, it's just an opinion poll, and doesn't mean much.

Posted by Woof
July 29, 2008 09:34 AM

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