Families and businesses take their best shot, when making financial decisions. They assess where things are, where they are likely to go and then act.

Lately, a tornado of economic conditions has everyone from Maine homeowners to lobstermen trying to pick up the pieces of their financial lives, after having made perfectly reasonable decisions that now have them trapped.

Not so long ago, all the pundits were saying that oil prices were heading toward $5 a gallon this winter, and a lot of people locked in a price above $4 to protect themselves. Now, they are paying prices far above the market.

Food inflation roared upward this spring. Maine lobstermen took out loans and made personal plans, in the expectation that this most-expensive of Maine commodities would head upward along with everything else. Surprise. Prices have collapsed.

Manufacturers and tourism officials drew up business plans, with an eye toward the anemic and seemingly forever-weakening dollar. But the world financial crisis has made the greenback king again, making exports less cost-competitive and international tourism in Maine more expensive.

A single-family home is the best investment you can ever make, experts told the public. And Mainers bought homes, even as prices roared higher. Now, with falling prices, many of those recent buyers are upside down. Their mortgage balances are higher than the value of their homes.

Investment professionals told us that the stock market builds the value of retirement portfolios better than cash or bonds, over time. But during the past year, the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen by 35 percent.

Of course, heating oil may yet turn around drastically. Demand for lobster might push prices high. Home prices and stock values almost certainly will turn around, as they always have.

Still, it's hard to feel confident in just about any economic decision you make, during these days when down is up, and black is white.

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