Economy needs a good plumber
Few of us spend much time thinking about the plumbing in our homes, much less the plumbing of the world's financial system.
But people around the world have focused on just that during these last three weeks, as policy makers have raced to fix the credit markets that carry money from those who have funds available to those who need it.
The pipes have burst in the basement, and the public is angry, confused and in a panic, trying salvage what they have been saving. The stock market has seen its biggest sell-off in a generation.
The situation reminds us why historians and economists used to use the word "panic," rather than the modern, antiseptic terms of "correction," "bear market," or "recession," to describe a downturn in the markets and the broader economy.
Maine communities have been forced to delay projects involving things such as school improvements and airport expansions. The communities are worried that the interest rates they'd have to pay on bonds floated in this market would be too high.
We learned today that retailers aren't seeing much coming out of the consumer tap either. Retail sales nationally fell by 1.2 percent in September, the largest amount in nearly three years.
On the plus side, we're also being told that money is starting to move in the credit markets. Maybe lawmakers, finance ministers and central bank executives worldwide have succeeded in breaking up the clog.
If so, there will be a lot of cleaning up to do, as the economy struggles to regain its footing. But at least we'll have some copper tubing in place, so we won't have to worry about the most basic aspects of our economy while we're pumping out.
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Your're right about the panic. However, to me, the amount that the public is worrying about the economy is more alarming than a market decline itself. Declines are inevitable but so is growth given enough time. The problem is short term investment theory.
Decades of cheap money and deregulation of the banking system brought in too much large scale speculation that investors weren't prepared for taking the risks on. I think all we can hope for now is that this changes the way we look to our 401Ks and retirement packages for constant short term growth. The pressure we place on these investments were and still are large factors in the decisions that the large funds make. I personally do not see an immediate end to the risk profile that our economy faces due to the demand of growth that we place on our retirement packages. Fast growth does not come without risk.
The anxiety of the stockholders (401K holders, Mutual fund holders, etc) is what will make money even harder to come by for companies trying to raise capital. The market adjustment has to start with the everyday worker. Simply worrying about the adjustment is what will make matters worse.
Posted by
TaithOctober 21, 2008 09:05 PM